Statistics "Prove" Ether Exists! Michelson-Morley and the Speed of Light

Carver's (1993) reanalysis of data from the famed 1887 Michelson-Morley experiment demonstrates that the hypothesis, "the speed of light depends on the direction of travel through the ether", cannot be rejected even at a .001 level of statistical significance. Thus ether is confirmed and Einstein's Theory of Relativity invalidated. Relativity's consequences, such as the Atomic Bomb, are seen to be misunderstandings at best, hoaxes at worst.

The moral of Carver's story is that significance testing is never decisive.

More informative than statistical testing, however, is plotting the data points as Michelson & Morley (1887) did. Their Figure is reproduced here. The upper curve is for the noon observations and the lower for the evening ones. The dotted curves represent one-eighth of the amplitudes away from the X-axis predicted by the "ether" theory. The solid lines represent the empirical results. The solid lines (the effect size) do exhibit some waviness and are indeed statistically "significantly" different from the straight lines predicted by non-ether theory. But do they provide support for the ether theory? The slight empirical waviness indicates that less than 1% of the variance of the speed of light is associated with direction, a substantive rejection of the ether theory. Relativity can be reinstated!

Several methodological conclusions result from comparing the graph with the "significance" analysis:

1) Well designed graphs always convey the meaning of results better than summary statistics and significance test results, and with less opportunity for confusion.

2) Effect sizes must be reported along with significance tests for correct conclusions to be drawn.

3) Type I errors (failures to reject incorrect null hypotheses) can occur even at the very demanding .001 level.

Mark Stone

Adler School of Professional Psychology

Chicago, Illinois

Carver R (1993) The case against statistical significance testing, revisited. The Journal of Experimental Education 61:4287-292.

Michelson A, Morley E (1887) On the relative motion of the earth and the luminiferous ether. American Journal of Science, 34, 333-341.

"I sometimes have a nightmare about Kepler. Suppose a few of us were transported back in time to the year 1600, and were invited by the Emperor Rudolph II to set up an Imperial Department of Statistics in the court at Prague. Despairing of those circular orbits, Kepler enrolls in our department. We teach him the general linear model, least squares, dummy variables, everything. He goes back to work, fits the best circular orbit for Mars by least squares, puts in a dummy variable for the exceptional observation - and publishes. And that's the end, right there in Prague at the beginning of the 17th century."
Freedman, D.A. (1985). Statistics and the scientific method. In W.M. Mason & S.E. Fienberg (Eds.), Cohort analysis in social research: Beyond the identification problem (pp. 343-366). New York: Springer-Verlag. P.35

Courtesy of Andrew Kyngdon

Statistics "Prove" Ether Exists! Stone M. H. … Rasch Measurement Transactions, 1997, 11:1 p. 541.

Rasch Books and Publications
Invariant Measurement: Using Rasch Models in the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences, 2nd Edn. George Engelhard, Jr. & Jue Wang	Applying the Rasch Model (Winsteps, Facets) 4th Ed., Bond, Yan, Heene	Advances in Rasch Analyses in the Human Sciences (Winsteps, Facets) 1st Ed., Boone, Staver	Advances in Applications of Rasch Measurement in Science Education, X. Liu & W. J. Boone	Rasch Analysis in the Human Sciences (Winsteps) Boone, Staver, Yale
Introduction to Many-Facet Rasch Measurement (Facets), Thomas Eckes	Statistical Analyses for Language Testers (Facets), Rita Green	Invariant Measurement with Raters and Rating Scales: Rasch Models for Rater-Mediated Assessments (Facets), George Engelhard, Jr. & Stefanie Wind	Aplicação do Modelo de Rasch (Português), de Bond, Trevor G., Fox, Christine M	Appliquer le modèle de Rasch: Défis et pistes de solution (Winsteps) E. Dionne, S. Béland
Exploring Rating Scale Functioning for Survey Research (R, Facets), Stefanie Wind	Rasch Measurement: Applications, Khine	Winsteps Tutorials - free Facets Tutorials - free	Many-Facet Rasch Measurement (Facets) - free, J.M. Linacre	Fairness, Justice and Language Assessment (Winsteps, Facets), McNamara, Knoch, Fan
Other Rasch-Related Resources: Rasch Measurement YouTube Channel
Rasch Measurement Transactions & Rasch Measurement research papers - free	An Introduction to the Rasch Model with Examples in R (eRm, etc.), Debelak, Strobl, Zeigenfuse	Rasch Measurement Theory Analysis in R, Wind, Hua	Applying the Rasch Model in Social Sciences Using R, Lamprianou	El modelo métrico de Rasch: Fundamentación, implementación e interpretación de la medida en ciencias sociales (Spanish Edition), Manuel González-Montesinos M.
Rasch Models: Foundations, Recent Developments, and Applications, Fischer & Molenaar	Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests, Georg Rasch	Rasch Models for Measurement, David Andrich	Constructing Measures, Mark Wilson	Best Test Design - free, Wright & Stone Rating Scale Analysis - free, Wright & Masters
Virtual Standard Setting: Setting Cut Scores, Charalambos Kollias	Diseño de Mejores Pruebas - free, Spanish Best Test Design	A Course in Rasch Measurement Theory, Andrich, Marais	Rasch Models in Health, Christensen, Kreiner, Mesba	Multivariate and Mixture Distribution Rasch Models, von Davier, Carstensen

Forum

Rasch Measurement Forum to discuss any Rasch-related topic

Go to Top of Page
Go to index of all Rasch Measurement Transactions
AERA members: Join the Rasch Measurement SIG and receive the printed version of RMT
Some back issues of RMT are available as bound volumes
Subscribe to Journal of Applied Measurement

Go to Institute for Objective Measurement Home Page. The Rasch Measurement SIG (AERA) thanks the Institute for Objective Measurement for inviting the publication of Rasch Measurement Transactions on the Institute's website, www.rasch.org.

The URL of this page is www.rasch.org/rmt/rmt111c.htm

Website: www.rasch.org/rmt/contents.htm